Blog

Your guide to understanding South East Europe

Land titles reform

Land titles reform – Sisyphean task for how much longer?

Land titles reform remains a challenge in Croatia. Is it time to take a different approach and consider a land tax?

Local government reform. Does size matter?

Local government reform focussed on cost alone misses the point. How to improve effectiveness and assist marginal and border areas to develop are also important aspects to consider.

Elections in Croatia and Serbia reflect regional diversity

Election outcomes demonstrate diversity of Southeast Europe

Recent elections in Croatia and Serbia once more demonstrated the diversity of Southeast Europe

Policy focus bring two pieces of good news for Croatia

Policy focus behind Croatia’s day of good news

The ECB’s positive AQR for Croatian banks and Fitch reaffirming Croatia’s investment grade rating with stable outlook underlines the importance of defining long term policy goals and implementing them.

Hope for a quick recovery, but don’t expect it

A V-shaped economic recovery is unlikely. Even if the coronavirus were to disappear, high indebtedness, unemployment, Sino-American tensions and falling global trade suggest a gradual and uneven recovery is more likely.

Differing policy response options underline diverse nature of South East Europe

Coronavirus exposes the extent of diversity in South East Europe

The coronavirus pandemic means the whole of South East Europe will experience a deep recession. Difference starting points, constraints and policy choices underline the diversity of the region.

Coronavirus and the Chernobyl disaster: how governance has improved

The difference in response to the coronavirus outbreak and the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 shows how much governance has improved in Croatia

UK leaves the EU as other countries see hope in new EU enlargement approach

EU enlargement and Brexit. Two sides of the same coin?

While the UK has left the EU, exposing itself to new risks, countries in South East Europe hope to join.

South East Europe’s economies: greater uncertainty in 2020

Another year of growth while debt is rising means the global economy is exposed to increasing risk in 2020. South East Europe is better placed for a downturn than in 2008, but that readiness is not uniformly distributed

Joining the euro: the fear of inflation is overdone

Fear of inflation when joining the euro is an everpresent, yet overdone sentiment. Many other factors are in play in determining inflation outcomes but the advent of a new currency tends to mask them.

Does it make sense to offer foreign investors subsidies?

News that VW has delayed a decision on an investment in Turkey has seen promises of subsidies from nations in South East Europe hopeful of becoming alternative investment locations.

What do Frankenstein and referendums have in common?

Referendums are a standard part of developed democracies. Yet, as Brexit shows they can destabilise even the most developed democracies. Referendums cannot become as a vehicle to bypass government and parliament.

Regional differences to become evident as uncertainty in the global economy rises

How will the growing uncertainty surrounding global economic prospects impact on South East Europe? IMELUM’s current Macroeconomic Quarterly provides an in depth look at the risks and opportunities facing the region.

Migration and Eastern Europe. Is the glass half full?

Migration from Eastern Europe to older EU member states is a major political issue. Various complex factors ensure not all countries are equally affected.

Croatia: Long term factors come into play as GDP growth accelerates

Participation in the EU’s single market is driving the integration of local companies into European and global supply chains, gradually increasing absorption of EU is supporting investment, while the reduction in the country’s risk profile has seen a return to investment grade status, thus lowering funding costs for the economy. These are all structural, as opposed to cyclical, reasons for optimism Croatia’s growth potential.

Speed also kills when making investment decisions

China’s Belt and Road Initiative offers a quicker, debt financing path to investments than EU procedures. But EU grants, as long as stringent conditions are met, are a far more sustainable and less risky option for EU member states.

The many ways Brexit will impact South East Europe and beyond

As the Brexit endgame fast approaches, the value of safety in numbers should become evident over time, especially for smaller EU member states.

Croatia and Slovenia: Two natural allies

As neighbouring countries with shared histories, Croatia and Slovenia have much in common. Accession to the EU has deepened these links, which Brexit is likely to strengthen.

How prepared is South East Europe for the next downturn?

The financial crisis of 2008/09 left a large scar on the region. With global economic conditions worsening, how prepared is South East Europe for the next downturn?

Playground logic necessary for successful entry into eurozone

When the big boys fight, smaller boys usually stay away. Strategic goals should not cloud policymakers’ judgement on adopting the euro.

Regional Monetary Policy: It’s all about the Exchange Rate

The exchange rate will remain the primary transmission mechanism of monetary policy in South East Europe as long as households prefer to save in foreign currency.

The most interesting aspects of the World Bank Doing Business 2019 Survey

A detailed look at the World Bank Doing Business 2019 Survey and Croatia’s performance according to the main criteria.

EU poverty indicators: Croatia between Spain and Italy

Insight into the risk of poverty or social exclusion in EU countries from the Eurostat’s Risk of Poverty or Social Exclusion Report.

The end game for Croatia’s shipyards?

Croatia’s shipyards employ far from best available technology. To get there, someone would have invest hundreds of millions of euros.