IMELUM’s goal is to provide an English language insight into economic and other trends in South East Europe. After almost twenty years of in-depth monitoring of the region from the public sector, the perspective of an investment bank, Croatia’s leading commercial bank and from a real sector vantage point in the energy sector, what became abundantly clear to me was that context is everything. To be able to ask the right questions we need the right context. On the blog you will often find posts on broader issues not necessarily related to economics. The idea is to provide an insight into the similarities and differences between the various countries of the region. Evidently, what is happening in the global economy and beyond the immediate region, especially (but not only) the EU’s former Warsaw Pact members are also important elements of providing the right context. If you are operating a business in the region or are thinking of doing so, I hope these posts will help you make more informed decisions, become more aware of the opportunities South East Europe offers and how IMELUM can help through our premium services.

Author

I am Goran Šaravanja. I am an economist with almost twenty years’ experience in South East Europe having worked in the public, finance and energy sectors.

As the founder of Imelum, I am putting those twenty years of exposure to policy, finance, energy, and business as well as knowledge and insight into a fascinating region of Europe, into providing independent analysis of economic and other trends.

Our services

Independent research on economic trends, financial markets, politics and leading sectors in CESEE.

We provide a wide range of services under ‘one’ umbrella. We do not trade any asset and our views are therefore not clouded by any trading or speculative positions. Our views are genuinely independent.

We have decades of experience in covering CESEE from policy, banking, investment banking, energy and risk backgrounds

  • Global macroeconomic trends, political and risk analysis, trade challenges
  • Global interest rates and foreign exchange developments
  • Economic trends in CESEE region, regional central banks’ policy decisions
  • Political and risk analysis of CESEE countries
  • In depth insights into EU accession prospects of SEE candidate (and other) countries
  • Economic assumptions for banks’ and corporate budgeting and business planning
  • Risk-driven scenario analysis in accordance to regulatory needs
  • Industry analysis
  • Structure of financial markets as well as outlook
  • Banking topics (Risk and regulatory issues, restructuring of banks)

IMELUM offers 12 monthly publications on economic and political trends in Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia Herzegovina and Serbia.

Four times a year we publish detailed economic forecasts and overviews on each of these countries and in the intervening months, a monthly overview of the main events in each of these countries. We also tailor our analyses to your specific needs.

Please contact us on info@imelum.com to inquire about our subscription services or how else we can help you gain a quality insight into South East Europe.

Learn more about specific services:

SEE industry annual reports

Leveraging our combination of independent macroeconomic analysis and in-depth regional country knowledge, we present sector outlooks, long-term trends and policy influences on leading industries (banking, energy, tourism, real-estate, FMCG et al)

Economic subscription service

Macroeconomic Quarterly and Monthly Reports covering:

Global and the euro zone macroeconomic trends, political and risk analysis
Global interest rates and foreign exchange developments
Economic Outlook for CESEE (Bosnia&Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Slovenia)
Political and risk analysis of CESEE countries

Business support

Presentation of economic assumptions for banks’ and corporate budgeting and planning sessions
Our experts will attend your budgeting and planning session to outline global, European, regional and country level economic, financial markets and political outlook in CESEE
Presentations align the understanding of economic factors with the internal drivers of the business
Macroeconomic Scenario Analysis
Prepared for banks and other financial institutions regulated by the European Banking Association, helping clients to successfully manage credit- and market risk in accordance with regulatory obligations
Top-down macroeconomic, interest rate, foreign exchange and risk analysis and projections under 4 scenarios (baseline, optimistic, pessimistic and adverse)
Sharp narrative behind numbers and additional information are our standard
Corporate finance services:

Independent bank and corporate valuation, sector outlook and long-term trends, policy influences

Saying of the Month

At IMELUM we are keenly aware that numbers and statistics on their own mean very little. As your source of context in South East Europe every month we provide a saying from the region to help you get an insight into the way people think and, more importantly, why. This is intended as an interactive exercise, so if you have a saying from any of the countries in South East Europe you think deserves to be disseminated more widely send it to us on info@imelum.com in the original language, an English translation, and a short summary. We’ll be glad to acknowledge your contribution.

Novac kada dolazi ima samo dvije noge, a kada odlazi ima sto.

Literally: when money arrives it only has two legs, yet when it leaves it has 100

Money doesn’t grow on trees

 

This is also an allegory for how difficult it is to be in government, making difficult decisions amongst options which are often themselves unattractive. With 2020 an election year in many countries of Southeast Europe, postal worker strikes in Serbia in late 2019 and teachers in Croatia having ended their lengthy strike recently, this saying is apt for the beginning of 2020. The essence of this saying is timeless: earning money or tax revenues is difficult and requires you to put much effort in, but it’s easily spent if you’re not careful. In the context of public finances, it’s even more complex than the often heard, but overly simplistic comparison with maintaining a household budget. Namely, every policy choice in government is a decision to redistribute resources from one or more groups to other groups. Hence the proverbial 100 legs when spending decisions are being made.

Blog

Your guide to understanding South East Europe

Regional Monetary Policy: It’s all about the Exchange Rate

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The exchange rate will remain the primary transmission mechanism of monetary policy in South East Europe as long as households prefer to save in foreign currency.

The most interesting aspects of the World Bank Doing Business 2019 Survey

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A detailed look at the World Bank Doing Business 2019 Survey and Croatia’s performance according to the main criteria.

EU poverty indicators: Croatia between Spain and Italy

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Insight into the risk of poverty or social exclusion in EU countries from the Eurostat’s Risk of Poverty or Social Exclusion Report.

The end game for Croatia’s shipyards?

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Croatia’s shipyards employ far from best available technology. To get there, someone would have invest hundreds of millions of euros.