IMELUM’s goal is to provide an English language insight into economic and other trends in South East Europe. After almost twenty years of in-depth monitoring of the region from the public sector, the perspective of an investment bank, Croatia’s leading commercial bank and from a real sector vantage point in the energy sector, what became abundantly clear to me was that context is everything. To be able to ask the right questions we need the right context. On the blog you will often find posts on broader issues not necessarily related to economics. The idea is to provide an insight into the similarities and differences between the various countries of the region. Evidently, what is happening in the global economy and beyond the immediate region, especially (but not only) the EU’s former Warsaw Pact members are also important elements of providing the right context. If you are operating a business in the region or are thinking of doing so, I hope these posts will help you make more informed decisions, become more aware of the opportunities South East Europe offers and how IMELUM can help through our premium services.

Author

I am Goran Šaravanja. I am an economist with almost twenty years’ experience in South East Europe having worked in the public, finance and energy sectors.

As the founder of Imelum, I am putting those twenty years of exposure to policy, finance, energy, and business as well as knowledge and insight into a fascinating region of Europe, into providing independent analysis of economic and other trends.

Our services

Independent research on economic trends, financial markets, politics and leading sectors in CESEE.

We provide a wide range of services under ‘one’ umbrella. We do not trade any asset and our views are therefore not clouded by any trading or speculative positions. Our views are genuinely independent.

We have decades of experience in covering CESEE from policy, banking, investment banking, energy and risk backgrounds

  • Global macroeconomic trends, political and risk analysis, trade challenges
  • Global interest rates and foreign exchange developments
  • Economic trends in CESEE region, regional central banks’ policy decisions
  • Political and risk analysis of CESEE countries incorporating a multidisciplinary approach involving geographic, cultural and historic aspects
  • In depth insights into EU accession prospects of SEE candidate (and other) countries
  • Economic assumptions for banks’ and corporate budgeting and business planning
  • Risk-driven scenario analysis in accordance to regulatory needs
  • Industry analysis
  • Structure of financial markets as well as outlook
  • Banking topics (Risk and regulatory issues, restructuring of banks)

IMELUM offers quarterly publications on economic and political trends in Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro and North Macedonia.

Four times a year we publish detailed economic forecasts and overviews on each of these countries. We also tailor our analyses to your specific needs.

Please contact us on info@imelum.com to inquire about our subscription services or how else we can help you gain a quality insight into South East Europe.

Learn more about specific services:

SEE industry annual reports

Leveraging our combination of independent macroeconomic analysis and in-depth regional country knowledge, we present sector outlooks, long-term trends and policy influences on leading industries (banking, energy, tourism, real-estate, FMCG et al)

Economic subscription service

Macroeconomic Quarterly Reports covering:

Global and the euro zone macroeconomic trends, political and risk analysis
Global interest rates and foreign exchange developments
Economic Outlook for CESEE (Bosnia Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Slovenia)
Political and risk analysis of CESEE countries

Business support

Presentation of economic assumptions for banks’ and corporate budgeting and planning sessions
Our experts will attend your budgeting and planning session to outline global, European, regional and country level economic, financial markets and political outlook in CESEE
Presentations align the understanding of economic factors with the internal drivers of the business
Macroeconomic Scenario Analysis
Prepared for banks and other financial institutions regulated by the European Banking Association, helping clients to successfully manage credit- and market risk in accordance with regulatory obligations
Top-down macroeconomic, interest rate, foreign exchange and risk analysis and projections under 4 scenarios (baseline, optimistic, pessimistic and adverse)
Sharp narrative behind numbers and additional information are our standard
Corporate finance services:

Independent bank and corporate valuation, sector outlook and long-term trends, policy influences

Saying of the Month

At IMELUM we are keenly aware that numbers and statistics on their own mean very little. As your source of context in South East Europe every month we provide a saying from the region to help you get an insight into the way people think and, more importantly, why. This is intended as an interactive exercise, so if you have a saying from any of the countries in South East Europe you think deserves to be disseminated more widely send it to us on info@imelum.com in the original language, an English translation, and a short summary. We’ll be glad to acknowledge your contribution.

“Što južnije, to tužnije”

Literally: “The further south (you go), the sadder (it gets)”

“The further south you go, the more things deteriorate”

This is a saying you will hear in the entire region but is perhaps most appropriate to Serbia. Namely, while one can certainly make the argument that moving South and East from Slovenia one is moving from the wealthiest part of the region towards lesser developed parts, the only larger nation which is shaped more North-South than East-West in the region is Serbia.

Moving from North to South in Serbia one moves from wealthy, Vojvodina with its links to central Europe and arable land, Belgrade, the commercial, administrative and political capital and further South to areas of Serbia which are much poorer and with no direct access to the sea.

Blog

Your guide to understanding South East Europe

Joining the euro: the fear of inflation is overdone

Fear of inflation when joining the euro is an everpresent, yet overdone sentiment. Many other factors are in play in determining inflation outcomes but the advent of a new currency tends to mask them.

Does it make sense to offer foreign investors subsidies?

News that VW has delayed a decision on an investment in Turkey has seen promises of subsidies from nations in South East Europe hopeful of becoming alternative investment locations.

What do Frankenstein and referendums have in common?

Referendums are a standard part of developed democracies. Yet, as Brexit shows they can destabilise even the most developed democracies. Referendums cannot become as a vehicle to bypass government and parliament.

Regional differences to become evident as uncertainty in the global economy rises

How will the growing uncertainty surrounding global economic prospects impact on South East Europe? IMELUM's current Macroeconomic Quarterly provides an in depth look at the risks and opportunities facing the region.