IMELUM’s goal is to provide an English language insight into economic and other trends in South East Europe. After almost twenty years of in-depth monitoring of the region from the public sector, the perspective of an investment bank, Croatia’s leading commercial bank and from a real sector vantage point in the energy sector, what became abundantly clear to me was that context is everything. To be able to ask the right questions we need the right context. On the blog you will often find posts on broader issues not necessarily related to economics. The idea is to provide an insight into the similarities and differences between the various countries of the region. Evidently, what is happening in the global economy and beyond the immediate region, especially (but not only) the EU’s former Warsaw Pact members are also important elements of providing the right context. If you are operating a business in the region or are thinking of doing so, I hope these posts will help you make more informed decisions, become more aware of the opportunities South East Europe offers and how IMELUM can help through our premium services.

Author

I am Goran Šaravanja. I am an economist with almost twenty years’ experience in South East Europe having worked in the public, finance and energy sectors.

As the founder of Imelum, I am putting those twenty years of exposure to policy, finance, energy, and business as well as knowledge and insight into a fascinating region of Europe, into providing independent analysis of economic and other trends.

Our services

Sectoral Analyses

Periodic and on-demand analyses of economic sectors in the region

Economic Analyses

Monthly updates of economic and policy developments in the region with a full set of economic forecasts updated four times a year

Business Support

Presentations of global, regional and country-specific trends with an independent view on factors which may affect your business. Ideal for budget planning exercises, corporate retreats or strategy sessions

Saying of the Month

At IMELUM we are keenly aware that numbers and statistics on their own mean very little. As your source of context in South East Europe every month we provide a saying from the region to help you get an insight into the way people think and, more importantly, why. This is intended as an interactive exercise, so if you have a saying from any of the countries in South East Europe you think deserves to be disseminated more widely send it to us on info@imelum.com in the original language, an English translation, and a short summary. We’ll be glad to acknowledge your contribution.

“Dva loša ubiše Miloša”

“Two weaker men murdered Miloš”

This Serbian saying, referring to Miloš Obilić of the Battle of Kosovo from 1389, means that if you are outnumbered, you will be defeated. The implication is that if you mean well, and others do not, they can get their way because there are more of them. This can be used to justify a negative outcome by claiming moral justification. A related interpretation is that all challenges can be overcome if society unites in the pursuit of a greater cause. The four Ss on the coat of arms of the Serbian flag which stand for the motto “Samo sloga Srbina spašava” – “Only unity can save the Serbs” reflects how deep this thinking goes in Serbian society.

Blog

Your guide to understanding South East Europe

Regional differences to become evident as uncertainty in the global economy rises

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How will the growing uncertainty surrounding global economic prospects impact on South East Europe? IMELUM's current Macroeconomic Quarterly provides an in depth look at the risks and opportunities facing the region.

Migration and Eastern Europe. Is the glass half full?

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Migration from Eastern Europe to older EU member states is a major political issue. Various complex factors ensure not all countries are equally affected.

Croatia: Long term factors come into play as GDP growth accelerates

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Participation in the EU's single market is driving the integration of local companies into European and global supply chains, gradually increasing absorption of EU is supporting investment, while the reduction in the country's risk profile has seen a return to investment grade status, thus lowering funding costs for the economy. These are all structural, as opposed to cyclical, reasons for optimism Croatia's growth potential.

Speed also kills when making investment decisions

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China's Belt and Road Initiative offers a quicker, debt financing path to investments than EU procedures. But EU grants, as long as stringent conditions are met, are a far more sustainable and less risky option for EU member states.