IMELUM’s goal is to provide an English language insight into economic and other trends in South East Europe. After almost twenty years of in-depth monitoring of the region from the public sector, the perspective of an investment bank, Croatia’s leading commercial bank and from a real sector vantage point in the energy sector, what became abundantly clear to me was that context is everything. To be able to ask the right questions we need the right context. On the blog you will often find posts on broader issues not necessarily related to economics. The idea is to provide an insight into the similarities and differences between the various countries of the region. Evidently, what is happening in the global economy and beyond the immediate region, especially (but not only) the EU’s former Warsaw Pact members are also important elements of providing the right context. If you are operating a business in the region or are thinking of doing so, I hope these posts will help you make more informed decisions, become more aware of the opportunities South East Europe offers and how IMELUM can help through our premium services.

Author

I am Goran Šaravanja. I am an economist with almost twenty years’ experience in South East Europe having worked in the public, finance and energy sectors.

As the founder of Imelum, I am putting those twenty years of exposure to policy, finance, energy, and business as well as knowledge and insight into a fascinating region of Europe, into providing independent analysis of economic and other trends.

Our services

Independent research on economic trends, financial markets, politics and leading sectors in CESEE.

We provide a wide range of services under ‘one’ umbrella. We do not trade any asset and our views are therefore not clouded by any trading or speculative positions. Our views are genuinely independent.

We have decades of experience in covering CESEE from policy, banking, investment banking, energy and risk backgrounds

  • Global macroeconomic trends, political and risk analysis, trade challenges
  • Global interest rates and foreign exchange developments
  • Economic trends in CESEE region, regional central banks’ policy decisions
  • Political and risk analysis of CESEE countries incorporating a multidisciplinary approach involving geographic, cultural and historic aspects
  • In depth insights into EU accession prospects of SEE candidate (and other) countries
  • Economic assumptions for banks’ and corporate budgeting and business planning
  • Risk-driven scenario analysis in accordance to regulatory needs
  • Industry analysis
  • Structure of financial markets as well as outlook
  • Banking topics (Risk and regulatory issues, restructuring of banks)

IMELUM offers quarterly publications on economic and political trends in Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro and North Macedonia.

Four times a year we publish detailed economic forecasts and overviews on each of these countries. We also tailor our analyses to your specific needs.

Please contact us on info@imelum.com to inquire about our subscription services or how else we can help you gain a quality insight into South East Europe.

Learn more about specific services:

SEE industry annual reports

Leveraging our combination of independent macroeconomic analysis and in-depth regional country knowledge, we present sector outlooks, long-term trends and policy influences on leading industries (banking, energy, tourism, real-estate, FMCG et al)

Economic subscription service

Macroeconomic Quarterly Reports covering:

Global and the euro zone macroeconomic trends, political and risk analysis
Global interest rates and foreign exchange developments
Economic Outlook for CESEE (Bosnia Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Slovenia)
Political and risk analysis of CESEE countries

Business support

Presentation of economic assumptions for banks’ and corporate budgeting and planning sessions
Our experts will attend your budgeting and planning session to outline global, European, regional and country level economic, financial markets and political outlook in CESEE
Presentations align the understanding of economic factors with the internal drivers of the business
Macroeconomic Scenario Analysis
Prepared for banks and other financial institutions regulated by the European Banking Association, helping clients to successfully manage credit- and market risk in accordance with regulatory obligations
Top-down macroeconomic, interest rate, foreign exchange and risk analysis and projections under 4 scenarios (baseline, optimistic, pessimistic and adverse)
Sharp narrative behind numbers and additional information are our standard
Corporate finance services:

Independent bank and corporate valuation, sector outlook and long-term trends, policy influences

Saying of the Month

At IMELUM we are keenly aware that numbers and statistics on their own mean very little. As your source of context in South East Europe every month we provide a saying from the region to help you get an insight into the way people think and, more importantly, why. This is intended as an interactive exercise, so if you have a saying from any of the countries in South East Europe you think deserves to be disseminated more widely send it to us on info@imelum.com in the original language, an English translation, and a short summary. We’ll be glad to acknowledge your contribution.

Ne talasaj

Don’t make waves

This is a widely used saying in the region which reflects a preference for being cautious with authority, keeping your thoughts to yourself and in the end, not showing initiative. Although all countries in the region are now democracies, the vestiges of the past remain deep-seated – this goes back further than Communist times reflecting a survival mode while various imperial powers took turns to rule different parts of South East Europe

Blog

Your guide to understanding South East Europe

Coronavirus and the Chernobyl disaster: how governance has improved

/
The difference in response to the coronavirus outbreak and the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 shows how much governance has improved in Croatia
UK leaves the EU as other countries see hope in new EU enlargement approach

EU enlargement and Brexit. Two sides of the same coin?

/
While the UK has left the EU, exposing itself to new risks, countries in South East Europe hope to join.

South East Europe's economies: greater uncertainty in 2020

/
Another year of growth while debt is rising means the global economy is exposed to increasing risk in 2020. South East Europe is better placed for a downturn than in 2008, but that readiness is not uniformly distributed

Joining the euro: the fear of inflation is overdone

/
Fear of inflation when joining the euro is an everpresent, yet overdone sentiment. Many other factors are in play in determining inflation outcomes but the advent of a new currency tends to mask them.